Will an Atlantic hurricane form on or before August 20, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will an Atlantic hurricane form on or before August 20, 2026? The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 22, 2026 at 10:59 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 23, 2026 at 3:52 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 31d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates any Atlantic-basin tropical cyclone as a hurricane (maximum sustained winds >= 74 mph / Category 1 or higher) at any point on or before 23:59 UTC on August 20, 2026, per official NHC public advisories.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates any Atlantic-basin tropical cyclone as a hurricane (maximum sustained winds >= 74 mph / Category 1 or higher) at any point on or before 23:59 UTC on August 20, 2026, per official NHC public advisories. Resolves NO if no Atlantic tropical cyclone reaches hurricane strength on or before that time. Notes: Atlantic basin only (North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of America). Eastern/Central Pacific systems do not count. Tropical storms (winds < 74 mph) do NOT qualify; the system must be classified a hurricane. As of market creation (July 24, 2026), the 2026 season has produced two named storms (Arthur, Bertha) but NO hurricane; the NHC 7-day tropical outlook shows no formation expected. Source (in order): NHC public advisories / Tropical Cyclone Reports (nhc.noaa.gov). Resolve within 48 hours of the qualifying advisory, or of the August 20 deadline passing with no hurricane.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ3.8K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 21, 2026