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Monday, August 17, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 37.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 24.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (175 in 24h)
- Will Trump announce or order a new U.S. military strike against Iran before August 18th, 2026?Manifoldno
- Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 7pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?Polymarketyes
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 17?Polymarketyes
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 17?Polymarketno
- Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 6pm EDT?Kalshino
- Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshino
- Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshino
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.