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Monday, August 10, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 18.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 31.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 19.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (42 in 24h)
- Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday?Manifoldno
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 3-9?Polymarketno
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 3-9?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.