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Sunday, August 9, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 10.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 16.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 53.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 27.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (91 in 24h)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?Manifoldno
- Will Messi arrive argentina today?Manifoldyes
- Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?Polymarketno
- Ethereum price at Aug 8, 2026 at 6pm EDT?Kalshino
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.