ProbCastOdds Reliability
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?62%▲32.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?100%▲36.0Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?82%▲16.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?44%▲8.2Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?85%▲8.2US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?32%▼6.0Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?80%▲0.9Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?50%▲28.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?13%▼21.0Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?75%▲7.5Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Sep 25?82%▲37.7If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?34%▼16.2Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?10%▲3.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?9%▼0.5Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?79%▲5.0Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?28%▼6.0

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Sunday, August 9, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Moved down 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-17.041%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-14.014%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.050%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 11.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-11.566%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.047%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Ethereum price at Aug 10, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved down 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-14.56%Likely noise
Will an Atlantic hurricane form on or before August 20, 2026?

Moved up 26.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+26.544%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Aug 10, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+16.067%Likely noise

Settled (32 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.