ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?21%▼18.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?79%▲17.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?79%▲19.0Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?54%▲5.5Fed rate hike in 2026?89%▲10.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?21%▲3.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?48%▼5.8Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?79%▲1.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?50%▲5.0Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?73%▼10.0Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?67%▲11.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?20%▼6.1Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12?7%▼4.0Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]28%▼21.4Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?21%▼19.0Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?81%▲20.0

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Wednesday, July 29, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved down 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-13.063%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Moved down 6.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.43%Confirmed move
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.011%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.045%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.053%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Moved up 62.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+62.796%Likely noise
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?

Moved down 34.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-34.061%Likely noise
Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?

Moved down 31.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-31.431%Likely noise

Settled (510 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.