ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Wednesday, July 29, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved down 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-13.063%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Moved down 6.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.43%Confirmed move
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.011%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.045%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.053%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Moved up 62.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+62.796%Likely noise
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?

Moved down 34.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-34.061%Likely noise
Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?

Moved down 31.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-31.431%Likely noise

Settled (510 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.