Odds Reliability Brief · archived edition · live feed →
Sunday, July 26, 2026
The day’s odds moves, sorted by whether the trading behind them can be believed — captured Jul 26, 11:56 PM ET.
Reliable moves
Repricings backed by real volume and healthy books.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Jul 26, 11:56 PM ET
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Jul 26, 11:56 PM ET
Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Jul 26, 11:56 PM ET
Likely noise
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved down 36.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Manifold · Likely Noise · data as of Jul 26, 11:56 PM ET
Moved down 25.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Manifold · Likely Noise · data as of Jul 26, 11:56 PM ET
Moved down 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Kalshi · Likely Noise · data as of Jul 26, 11:56 PM ET
Widest venue disagreement
The largest gap between approved cross-venue pairs pricing the same question.
Fed leaves its target rate unchanged at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting
gap 0.5 ptsMethodology: verdicts restate ProbCast’s existing Movement, Liquidity and Trust scores — a move is “reliable” when the repricing is backed by real volume, tight spreads and fresh prices, and “likely noise” when it isn’t. No new judgment is applied on this page. Full rules on the methodology page.
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