PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 11m ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?

As of Sep 29, 2026, 5:23 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 1.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $31K traded in the past 24 hours, $34K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
1.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
32 days until the event deadline
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$623.3 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Resolution source: app.pyth.com

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (app.pyth.com)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 29, 5:34 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
51Medium
Where the price path tends to go next467 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting93%
  • Thin-liquidity spike3%
  • Stable consensus3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~41h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$31K

Liquidity

$34K

Total volume

$32.1K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
1.1%
Best ask
1.2%
7-day range
1.1% – 1.4%
Resolves
Oct 31, 2026
Resolution
app.pyth.com
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.324H-0.37D-0.3

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