Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 0.1%
- Event deadline
- August 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- open
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- August 10, 2026 at 1:38 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- August 10, 2026 at 1:42 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- August 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolution source: earthquake.usgs.gov