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Currently 2% YES, down 2.2 pts over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 46/100).
Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
EXPIRING_SOONResolving soonFAST_MOVEMoving fastMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: expiring soon.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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