Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?31%22.5Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?68%22.6Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?7%51.7Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?34%12.0Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?73%6.5Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?64%16.0Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?7%12.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?76%5.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?96%2.3Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?92%15.9Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?80%4.5Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?4%83.6Opus 5.2 released in September?25%2.4Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?19%4.5Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?13%3.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?36%1.0
PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 7m ago

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Market probability
0.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
9 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 29, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$163.6 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 29, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 20, 6:35 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±13 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
45Medium
Where the price path tends to go next325 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting89%
  • Stable consensus5%
  • Thin-liquidity spike3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$18.9K

Liquidity

$159K

Total volume

$281K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.2%
Resolves
Sep 29, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

Related markets