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PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 5m ago

Will Linke win less than 9% of all valid second votes?

Last traded probability
99.0%
-0.8 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
99.0%
Event deadline
September 6, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Linke win less than 9% of all valid second votes? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 99.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 6, 2026 at 10:23 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 6, 2026 at 10:28 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 6, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
5m ago

What this market actually measures

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Market data

24h volume

$47.1K

Liquidity

$10.8K

Total volume

$52.4K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
1.9 pts
Best bid
98.0%
Best ask
99.9%
7-day range
99.0% – 99.8%
Resolves
Sep 6, 2026

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