US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?65%4.0US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?75%1.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?39%12.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?21%5.3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?23%1.0Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?36%8.5Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?11%16.6Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?64%5.0Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?70%15.0"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?59%22.2Iran full airspace closure by August 15?14%4.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?76%3.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?71%3.6Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?51%12.5Will Anthropic stop deprecating models and make old ones available for access by the end of the year?10%20.8US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?17%8.5

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