Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed have started streaming a gaming gauntlet on August 20, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to play Roblox, win three Rocket League matches, and secure a Victory Royale in a ranked Fortnite match.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed have started streaming a gaming gauntlet on August 20, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to play Roblox, win three Rocket League matches, and secure a Victory Royale in a ranked Fortnite match. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete all three aforementioned objectives of the gauntlet live on stream within the specified duration, as displayed on the on-screen timer on Kai Cenat's official broadcast on Twitch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no on-screen timer is visible at the time of completion, this market will resolve according to the number of hours since August 20, 2026, 2:38 PM ET. The objectives may be completed in any order. An objective must be achieved on stream and accepted by Kai and Speed as complete. An objective will not be treated as completed if they void and continue pursuing it. Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or not completed within the specified duration, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the on-screen timer displayed on Kai Cenat's official broadcast on Twitch (https://www.twitch.tv/kaicenat).
Resolution source: twitch.tv
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 21, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (twitch.tv)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 21, 2:22 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Market data
24h volume