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Currently 96% YES, up 4.9 pts over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a meaningful, liquidity-backed move (Trust 55/100).
Moved up 4.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Graham Platner withdraws from or officially announces his withdrawal from the 2026 Maine Senate election, or announces the suspension of his 2026 Senate campaign, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Graham Platner or his official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
FAST_MOVEMoving fastMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: limited history.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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