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Home/Politics/Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 6m ago

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Last traded probability
96.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
96.0%
Event deadline
August 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 96.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 11, 2026 at 4:32 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 11, 2026 at 4:38 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
6m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

52/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity81

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic Primary for governor by 10.00% or more?

77%YESTrust 23
ManifoldṀ551.4 24h
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Market data

24h volume

$104.7K

Liquidity

$47.3K

Total volume

$322.6K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.3 pts
Best bid
95.9%
Best ask
96.2%
7-day range
95.6% – 96.0%
Resolves
Aug 10, 2026

Trust breakdown

52/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+57
  • Price steadiness+28
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
Trust score52 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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