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Home/Politics/Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?
PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 10m ago

Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

Last traded probability
100.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
100.0%
Event deadline
August 8, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 100.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 9, 2026 at 4:26 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 9, 2026 at 4:37 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 8, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
10m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market data

24h volume

$44.8K

Liquidity

$27.4K

Total volume

$58.9K

Category
Politics
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

28/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity73

Depth of the order book and volume

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
7-day range
100.0% – 100.0%
Resolves
Aug 8, 2026

Trust breakdown

28/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+54
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
Trust score28 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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