ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?36%▼6.0Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?99%▲13.1US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?69%▼8.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?41%▲2.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?36%▼1.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?59%▼3.0Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?7%▼44.1Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?5%▼5.3Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?50%▼8.1US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?2%▼7.5Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?20%▼0.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?10%▼3.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?52%▼5.0"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?17%▼30.6Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4%▼0.9Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?27%▼6.0
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?36%▼6.0Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?99%▲13.1US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?69%▼8.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?41%▲2.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?36%▼1.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?59%▼3.0Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?7%▼44.1Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?5%▼5.3Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?50%▼8.1US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?2%▼7.5Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?20%▼0.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?10%▼3.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?52%▼5.0"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?17%▼30.6Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4%▼0.9Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?27%▼6.0
Home/Politics/Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 6m ago

Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Last traded probability
0.3%
-0.1 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.3%
Event deadline
August 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.3%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 18, 2026 at 4:35 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 18, 2026 at 4:40 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
6m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market data

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

55/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity83

Depth of the order book and volume

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto

24h volume

$65.8K

Liquidity

$319.4K

Total volume

$176.9K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.2 pts
Best bid
0.2%
Best ask
0.4%
7-day range
0.3% – 0.4%
Resolves
Aug 17, 2026

Trust breakdown

55/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+58
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
Trust score55 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]