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Home/Macro / Fed/Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-08-23?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 15m ago

Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-08-23?

Market probability
44.5%
+1 percentage point
over 24 hours43.5% → 44.5%
Less than a day until the scheduled event
Deadline: August 23, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

Confirmed repricing; the market has settled at the new level.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$45.5K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 23, 2026 If Brighton & Hove Albion FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 23, 2026 If Brighton & Hove Albion FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Resolution source: premierleague.com

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeAugust 23, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (premierleague.com)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 23, 3:53 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±12 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+1.024H+1.07D+1.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

65/ 100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement20

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity84

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
43Medium
Where the price path tends to go next274 observed
  • Stable consensus88%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting9%
  • Trend continuation2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$101.5K

Liquidity

$832.5K

Total volume

$102.5K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
44.0%
Best ask
45.0%
7-day range
43.5% – 44.5%
Resolves
Aug 23, 2026
Resolution
premierleague.com

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

65/100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

  • Liquidity anchor+59
  • Price steadiness+24
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score65 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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