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Home/Crypto/Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?
PolymarketCryptoUpdated 8m ago

Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?

Market probability
0.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 11, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$370.5 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 11, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 10, 10:00 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Market data

24h volume

$72K

Liquidity

$12K

Total volume

Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.224H-0.27D-0.2
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

44/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

Settlement-stage — price is pinned near resolution. Read it as a settlement signal, not a fresh forecast.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement4

Magnitude of recent probability change

Related markets

Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?

0%YESTrust 45
Polymarket$55.7K 24h

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?

0%YESTrust 65
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?

1%YESTrust 61
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
44Medium
Where the price path tends to go next382 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting94%
  • Stable consensus2%
  • Thin-liquidity spike1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

$72K

Category
Crypto
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
7-day range
0.1% – 0.3%
Resolves
Aug 11, 2026
Liquidity76

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

44/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+54
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score44 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket
$98.5K 24h

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 11?

0%YESTrust 67
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Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?

44%YESTrust 32
Polymarket$39.9K 24h

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?

98%YESTrust 63
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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