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Home/Macro / Fed/Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-12?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 4m ago

Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-12?

Last traded probability
4.2%
-15.3 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
4.2%
Event deadline
August 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
uefa.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-12? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 4.2%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 12, 2026 at 3:38 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 12, 2026 at 3:42 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution

What this market actually measures

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If Aston Villa wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If Aston Villa wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Resolution source: uefa.com

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

17/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity86

Depth of the order book and volume

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Data updated
4m ago

Market data

24h volume

$320.8K

Liquidity

$168.3K

Total volume

$337.7K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.4 pts
Best bid
4.0%
Best ask
4.4%
7-day range
3.5% – 19.5%
Resolves
Aug 12, 2026
Resolution
uefa.com

Trust breakdown

17/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+59
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score17 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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