UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Jalin Turner" if Jalin Turner is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kauê Fernandes at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Jalin Turner" if Jalin Turner is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kauê Fernandes at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Kauê Fernandes" if Kauê Fernandes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: ufc.com
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeAugust 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (ufc.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 6:43 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±11 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
Market data
24h volume
$89.5K
Liquidity
$97.2K
Total volume
$130.5K
- Category
- Macro / Fed