Trump meets with Putin by September 30?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 2:16 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $27.3K traded in the past 24 hours, $49.4K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.2 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Trump and Putin are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 28, 2:22 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting92%
- Stable consensus3%
- Thin-liquidity spike3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$27.3K
Liquidity
$49.4K
Total volume
$155K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.2 pts
- Best bid
- 0.2%
- Best ask
- 0.4%
- 7-day range
- 0.1% – 0.3%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026