PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 7m ago

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

As of Oct 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 16.3% (up from 15.3% 24 hours earlier). It had $30K traded in the past 24 hours, $24K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.3 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
16.3%
+0.9 percentage points
over 24 hours15.3% → 16.3%
25 days until the event deadline
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$7.2K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 6, 5:33 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next464 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting92%
  • Stable consensus4%
  • Thin-liquidity spike2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$30K

Liquidity

$24K

Total volume

$78.7K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.3 pts
Best bid
15.6%
Best ask
16.9%
7-day range
15.1% – 16.6%
Resolves
Oct 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H-0.36H+0.924H+0.97D+0.9

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