Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 11:57 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.6% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $43.4K traded in the past 24 hours, $1K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.6 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments for the Jumper raise on Legion exceeds the listed value at any point before October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments for the Jumper raise on Legion exceeds the listed value at any point before October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the total committed value displayed on the official Jumper sale page on Legion at https://app.legion.cc/app/invest/jumper. If the displayed figure exceeds the listed value at any point before October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the listed value will not qualify. If the sale is on hold and no commitment total is verifiable by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the raise event is otherwise cancelled or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market resolves to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale begins and is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the listed value before October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 12:00 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting89%
- Stable consensus5%
- Trend continuation3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$43.4K
Liquidity
$1K
Total volume
$53.8K
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.6 pts
- Best bid
- 0.3%
- Best ask
- 0.9%
- 7-day range
- 0.4% – 2.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 5, 2026