Market prices a 54.5% chance of “Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins” — up 4 points in 24 hours
Original Polymarket title: “Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins”
Confirmed repricing, but the latest probability is still moving.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 1 point in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
What this market actually measures
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Virtus.pro and Sashi Esport in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Sashi Esport.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Virtus.pro and Sashi Esport in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Sashi Esport. This market will resolve to "Sashi Esport" if Sashi Esport win the match against Virtus.pro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 1 point in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 4.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.5% → 54.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeAugust 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (hltv.org)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 8, 5:50 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.