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Home/Macro / Fed/Counter-Strike: K27 vs SAW (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 10m ago

Market prices a 71.5% chance of “Counter-Strike: K27 vs SAW (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins” — down 1 point in 24 hours

Original Polymarket title: “Counter-Strike: K27 vs SAW (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins”

Market probability
71.5%
−1 percentage point
over 24 hours72.5% → 71.5%
Less than a day until the scheduled event
Deadline: August 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

What this market actually measures

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between K27 and SAW in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "K27" if K27 win the match against SAW.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between K27 and SAW in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "K27" if K27 win the match against SAW. This market will resolve to "SAW" if SAW win the match against K27. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$71.6K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeAugust 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (hltv.org)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 8, 7:43 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.024H-1.07D-1.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

39/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement20

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity76

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto

Resolution source: hltv.org

  • Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next460 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting88%
  • Illiquid / quiet4%
  • Thin-liquidity spike3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$101.9K

Liquidity

$11.5K

Total volume

$101.9K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
71.0%
Best ask
72.0%
7-day range
69.5% – 72.5%
Resolves
Aug 9, 2026
Resolution
hltv.org

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

39/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+53
  • Price steadiness+24
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score39 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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