Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert Alkaya
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market refers to the tennis match between Khumoun Sultanov and Mert Alkaya in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Khumoun Sultanov' if Khumoun Sultanov advances against Mert Alkaya.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Khumoun Sultanov and Mert Alkaya in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Khumoun Sultanov' if Khumoun Sultanov advances against Mert Alkaya. This market will resolve to 'Mert Alkaya' if Mert Alkaya advances against Khumoun Sultanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: atptour.com
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeAugust 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (atptour.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 6:43 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±11 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
Market data
24h volume
$184.7K
Liquidity
$48.7K
Total volume