Loading dashboard…
Loading dashboard…
Loading market detail…
Currently 15% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 24/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to hold the office of the President of Ukraine at any point prior to January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC. This market will resolve to NO if Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains the active or acting President of Ukraine at January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC. "Ceasing to hold office" includes resignation, removal, replacement, impeachment, death, incapacitation, or the swearing-in/inauguration of a successor. A brief, temporary delegation of presidential powers (e.g., due to medical procedures) will not count as being "out" unless he permanently vacates the office. The primary source of truth for resolving this market will be the official website of the President of Ukraine (https://www.president.gov.ua/en), supplemented by credible international news agencies such as Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) and the Associated Press (https://www.apnews.com). Background Volodymyr Zelenskyy assumed the presidency of Ukraine on May 20, 2019. Under normal circumstances, his five-year term would have concluded in May 2024, with elections scheduled for March 2024. Since the February 2022 full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine has been under martial law. According to Article 19 of Ukraine’s law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law," conducting presidential, parliamentary, or local elections is legally prohibited during wartime. Under Article 108 of the Ukrainian Constitution, the incumbent president exercises power until a newly elected president assumes office. This means Zelenskyy remains the legitimate president of Ukraine until security conditions permit an election and a successor is sworn in. This market tracks whether he will vacate the office for any reason before 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
MISSING_DATALimited dataLOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketWeakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]