Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 4:42 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 9.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ50 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?" Resolves YES on: any temporary, "you must delay release to allow US gov to use first" situations, or any model being pulled from public availability, for any amount of time any model being restricted to US only or similar Not enough to count: A targeted restriction due to say, sanctions, is insufficient. A broad restriction against "all AI", where xAI/Musk are not named, is…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?" Resolves YES on: any temporary, "you must delay release to allow US gov to use first" situations, or any model being pulled from public availability, for any amount of time any model being restricted to US only or similar Not enough to count: A targeted restriction due to say, sanctions, is insufficient. A broad restriction against "all AI", where xAI/Musk are not named, is insufficient. Resolves NO if none of these things happen. For most edge cases, e.g. xAI changes name, leadership named that aren't Musk, etc. etc., I will go with the spirit of the market - so xAI includes any wholly owned subsidiary, acquirer/successor, and same for Musk. Extend that thinking to any other questions
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 4:44 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ50
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ3.2K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 9.1%
- 7-day range
- 9.1% – 9.4%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026