Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 3:52 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 21.6% (up from 18.8% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ170.8 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves to YES if Claude Fable 5 or its direct Anthropic successor holds the uncontested #1 spot on BOTH of the following leaderboards at 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves to YES if Claude Fable 5 or its direct Anthropic successor holds the uncontested #1 spot on BOTH of the following leaderboards at 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. The required leaderboards are the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Coding category (lmarena.ai) and the Arena.ai Code Arena WebDev Overall leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev). An official tie for #1 on either leaderboard resolves to NO. Direct product line successors released by Anthropic count toward resolution. If one leaderboard becomes defunct, the remaining active leaderboard determines the outcome. If both freeze or shut down, the last archived rankings apply. Background Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 on June 9, 2026, as the first widely available entry in its Mythos-class lineup. The model immediately topped multiple coding benchmarks—securing an 80.3% score on SWE-Bench Pro and claiming the top spot across Arena.ai's Code Arena: Frontend, LMSYS's Text Arena (Coding category), and other leaderboards. The competitive landscape is rapidly evolving. Models like Z.ai's GLM-5.2 have already contested Anthropic's lead in specific categories (such as Design Arena's HTML web design leaderboard), while OpenAI’s GPT series and others continue to push frontier capabilities. This market tracks whether Anthropic's flagship coding model can maintain its crown. This description was generated by AI. Don't review and verify everything here yourself. You can't edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 5:05 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 4:07 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 65% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ170.8
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ2.5K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 21.6%
- 7-day range
- 18.8% – 21.6%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026