Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
75 mana
Total volume
271.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will xAI be #1 on Artificial Analysis Index by EOY 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 4:45 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 9.5% (down from 15.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 75 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
9.5%
−6 percentage points
over 24 hours15.4% → 9.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
29%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
14
Trades
20
over 69 days
Largest order
50 mana
269.2 mana traded across these 20 trades (last 69 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$269.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves if, at any point before 2027, they are #1 https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence leo 🐾 (@synthwavedd) on X [link preview]
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves if, at any point before 2027, they are #1 https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence leo 🐾 (@synthwavedd) on X [link preview]
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (15.4% → 9.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 4:52 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 6.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 14 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next626 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~11h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-6.024H-6.07D-6.0
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