Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
256 mana
Total volume
600.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 20, 2026, 3:34 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.0% (down from 23.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 256 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (18.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
256 mana
Total volume
600.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
15
Trades
37
over 86 days
Largest order
50 mana
318.8 mana traded across these 37 trades (last 86 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Stephen (Steph) Curry is officially traded from the Golden State Warriors to another NBA franchise on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. This market will resolve to NO if he is not traded by this deadline, which includes scenarios where he remains with the Golden State Warriors, retires, is waived, or has his contract bought out.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Stephen (Steph) Curry is officially traded from the Golden State Warriors to another NBA franchise on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. This market will resolve to NO if he is not traded by this deadline, which includes scenarios where he remains with the Golden State Warriors, retires, is waived, or has his contract bought out. Resolution Sources: The trade must be officially finalized by the NBA and reported by the Golden State Warriors, NBA.com's Official Transactions page, or major sports news outlets (such as ESPN or The Athletic) on or before the deadline. Verbally agreed-upon trades or rumors that are not formally finalized by the league office before January 1, 2027, will not qualify for a YES resolution. Background In August 2024, Stephen Curry signed a one-year, $62.6 million extension that locked him in with the Golden State Warriors through the 2026–27 NBA season. Curry is currently entering the final year of his contract. He becomes eligible to sign another veteran extension on August 29, 2026. While there is ongoing speculation about the franchise's trajectory and whether the front office can construct a championship contender around their aging superstar, Curry has historically expressed a strong desire to play his entire career with the Warriors. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The probability fell 18.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (23.2% → 5.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 3:44 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.