Will Wales become a US state before 2045?

The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.

• ·Trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
• ·The probability has barely moved over the past day.

Resolution

Resolves as YES if Wales, or a successor political entity consisting substantially of the territory of Wales, is formally admitted to the United States as a U.S. state with an effective date before January 1st 2045. Resolution will be based on official legal recognition by the United States, such as an Act of Congress admitting Wales as a state, and the admission must have legally taken effect before the deadline. Resolves as NO if Wales has not become a U.S. state before January 1st 2045, including if it only becomes a U.S. territory, protectorate, commonwealth, associated state, military-administered region, or otherwise falls under U.S. influence without full U.S. statehood. If the entire United Kingdom, Great Britain, or another larger entity containing Wales is admitted as a single U.S. state, this market resolves YES only if Wales is included in that state at the time of admission.