Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 36.0%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 36.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- September 30, 2026 at 8:05 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 30, 2026 at 9:11 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 1h ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856): [image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856): [image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months. If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by November 1st, this resolves NA
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ530.3
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1.7K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 36.0%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026