Will this market close with its probability within 10 points of its 50% starting point?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 1:33 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 39.5% (down from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ30.8 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (10.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 10.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 39.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 12, 2026 at 8:23 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 28, 1:38 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 10.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ30.8
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ30.8
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 39.5%
- 7-day range
- 39.5% – 50.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 12, 2026