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Home/Macro / Fed/MLB: Will the San Francisco Giants sweep the St. Louis Cardinals OR will the 3-game series total 24 or more runs?
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 11m ago

MLB: Will the San Francisco Giants sweep the St. Louis Cardinals OR will the 3-game series total 24 or more runs?

Market probability
45.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
10 days until the scheduled event
Deadline: September 7, 2026 at 8:07 PM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions is met during the three-game series between the San Francisco Giants and the St.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

See previous similar propositions. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions is met during the three-game series between the San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals scheduled for September 7–9, 2026: Giants Sweep: The San Francisco Giants win all three games of the series. (A minimum of 2 completed games is required to constitute a sweep if any game is canceled or postponed). High-Scoring Series: The total combined runs scored by both teams across all games in the series is 24 or more (i.e., Game 1 Total + Game 2 Total + Game 3 Total $\ge$ 24). If neither of these conditions is met, the market will resolve to NO. Additional Rules & Edge Cases: Official box scores from MLB.com will serve as the source of truth for the winners and run totals. If a scheduled game is postponed, suspended, or canceled and not completed by the end of the 2026 MLB regular season, only the games actually played will count toward the resolution. If the series is entirely canceled with zero games played, this market will resolve to N/A. In the event of a doubleheader, only the first game played on that calendar day will count toward the series. If the creator intended this market to apply to the subsequent September 14–16, 2026 series at Busch Stadium instead, they should edit this description prior to the start of the first game on September 7. Background The San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals meet for a late-season three-game series at Oracle Park from September 7–9, 2026. A second three-game series between the two teams is scheduled to follow shortly after from September 14–16, 2026 in St. Louis. This market tracks whether the Giants can complete a series sweep on their home turf, or if the two teams combine for a high-scoring series averaging at least 8.0 total runs per game. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeSeptember 7, 2026 at 8:07 PM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 28, 11:24 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

14/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity39

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
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  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next706 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ8.5

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ8.5

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
45.0%
7-day range
45.0% – 45.0%
Resolves
Sep 7, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

14/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+31
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
Trust score14 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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