Will the S&P 500 close above 7,710 on Friday?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.4%.
- Final market price
- 99.4%
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 4:55 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,710 on Friday? The final Manifold price was 99.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.4%.
- Market data as of
- September 7, 2026 at 4:56 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 4:55 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 44d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily closing price is strictly above 7,710.00 on Friday, September 4, 2026. It will resolve to NO if the index closes at or below 7,710.00.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily closing price is strictly above 7,710.00 on Friday, September 4, 2026. It will resolve to NO if the index closes at or below 7,710.00. The primary source of truth for the index's closing price will be Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or, as a secondary source, Google Finance (INDEXSP: .INX). If U.S. stock markets are unexpectedly closed on Friday, September 4, 2026, this market will resolve based on the closing price of the next official trading day. Background The S&P 500 index ended trading on Friday, August 28, 2026, at 7,711.76. The close marked a weekly gain of 0.49% and brought the index’s month-to-date return to nearly 3%, continuing a historically strong setup for the latter part of the year. However, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, signaling a willingness to tighten monetary policy further to combat inflation, have introduced some near-term volatility and raised expectations for a September rate hike.