Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 on the last trading day of August 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 on the last trading day of August 2026? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 3, 2026 at 5:21 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 47d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (ticker: ^GSPC / .INX) closes above 7,000.00 on the last trading day of August 2026. It will resolve to NO if the index closes at or below 7,000.00.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (ticker: ^GSPC / .INX) closes above 7,000.00 on the last trading day of August 2026. It will resolve to NO if the index closes at or below 7,000.00. The last scheduled trading day of the month is Monday, August 31, 2026. If the U.S. stock market is closed on that day due to an unscheduled event, the closing price on the last actual trading day of August 2026 will be used. The closing price will be verified using the official index values reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices or major financial sources such as Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) and Google Finance (.INX). Background As of late July 2026, the S&P 500 is trading in the 7,400 to 7,500 range. While the market has recently experienced minor fluctuations driven by tech earnings and sector rotations, it remains significantly above the 5,000.00 mark. This market queries whether a catastrophic market crash or unprecedented downward correction will occur in August 2026 to push the index below 5,000.00. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.