Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
40 mana
Total volume
425.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the Resident Evil movie make over 8 million dollars at the Japanese box office? (AKA the Biohazard movie)
As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:15 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 90.2% (up from 87.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 40 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
90.2%
+2.8 percentage points
over 24 hours87.4% → 90.2%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
50%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
17
over 54 days
Largest order
60 mana
361.1 mana traded across these 17 trades (last 54 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$361.1 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
See also for over 30 million dollars: https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-resident-evil-movie-make-o-NcAPdsEcZZ
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
See also for over 30 million dollars: https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-resident-evil-movie-make-o-NcAPdsEcZZ
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesFebruary 18, 2027 at 12:41 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:27 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next1012 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~18h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
40 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
425.6 mana
- Category
- Other
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 90.2%
- 7-day range
- 87.4% – 90.2%
- Resolves
- Feb 18, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+2.87D+2.8
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