Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
10K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.6K mana
Total volume
2.1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Do you like 6% odds?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 6.2% (up from 5.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.6K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
6.2%
+0.6 percentage points
over 24 hours5.6% → 6.2%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
75%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
7
over 2 days
Largest order
1K mana
2.7K mana traded across these 7 trades (last 2 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$2.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 6 (inclusive), this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesFebruary 26, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
- Little executed flow — price is quote-driven, not trade-driven
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
41Medium
Where the price path tends to go next486 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting91%
- Stable consensus5%
- Illiquid / quiet2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
1.6K mana
Liquidity
10K mana
Total volume
2.1K mana
- Category
- Other
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 6.2%
- 7-day range
- 5.6% – 6.2%
- Resolves
- Feb 26, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.224H+0.67D+0.6
Related markets
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%YESTrust 59
Polymarket$29.3K 24h
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
4%YESTrust 53
Manifold80.3K mana 24h
Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
5%YESTrust 41
Manifold500 mana 24h
Will Team Bardiani start the 2027 Giro d'Italia?
65%YESTrust 3
Manifold352 mana 24h
Will the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?
86%YESTrust 39
Manifold121.6 mana 24h
Will I play GTA6 on my PC within two weeks from its launch?
27%YESTrust 46
Manifold50 mana 24h