Market prices a 67.0% chance of “Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?”
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin. (Identical market to: source market)
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2031 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 11:08 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest