Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
269.5 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the Korean stock market hit an all time high within 6 months?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 6:52 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 64.0% (down from 74.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
64.0%
−10.7 percentage points
over 24 hours74.7% → 64.0%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
39%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
19
over 98 days
Largest order
75 mana
265.9 mana traded across these 19 trades (last 98 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$265.9 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Previous ATH price for the KOSPI is listed at 9,385.59 Market resolves yes if the KOSPI trades above that price, during regular trading hours, before the closing date.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Previous ATH price for the KOSPI is listed at 9,385.59 Market resolves yes if the KOSPI trades above that price, during regular trading hours, before the closing date.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 10.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (74.7% → 64.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 8, 2027 at 3:03 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 6:58 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
6Low
Where the price path tends to go next445 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-10.77D-10.7
Related markets
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
1%YESTrust 68
Kalshi$331.3 24h
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
1%YESTrust 71
Kalshi$704.6 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 100
Polymarket$171K 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 100
Polymarket$195.2K 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 95
Polymarket$1.1M 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
14%YESTrust 82
Polymarket$416.7K 24h