Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?

Resolution

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026 reports a seasonally adjusted U-6 unemployment / labor-underutilization rate of at least 8.0%. Use Table A-15, Alternative measures of labor underutilization, in the initial BLS July 2026 Employment Situation release. U-6 is the row described by BLS as total unemployed, plus all people marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all people marginally attached to the labor force. Use the seasonally adjusted July 2026 value. A reported value of 8.0% or higher resolves YES; a value below 8.0% resolves NO. Do not use U-3/the official unemployment rate, labor-force participation, employment-population ratio, nonfarm payroll employment, household-survey employment, AHE/wage growth, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, state/metro unemployment, forecast consensus, non-seasonally-adjusted U-6, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the July 2026 seasonally adjusted U-6 value unless there is no such release by August 14, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"may_2026_labor_force_participation_rate": 61.8, "may_2026_u3_unemployment_rate": 4.3, "may_2026_u6_unemployment_rate_seasonally_adjusted": 8.1, "release": "The Employment Situation, May 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-05"}, "metric": "U-6 alternative measure of labor underutilization, seasonally adjusted", "related_non_duplicates": ["July 2026 U-3 unemployment-rate, nonfarm-payroll-change, labor-force-participation, average-hourly-earnings, claims, ADP, and JOLTS markets are not duplicates.", "June 2026 U-6 and other June Employment Situation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "State, metro, demographic, forecast-consensus, non-seasonally-adjusted, and revision markets are not exact duplicates.", "July 2026 CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-sales, industrial-production, housing, and permits markets are different statistical releases."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the July 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-08-07 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026, Table A-15", "threshold": "8.0% or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS current Table A-15: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm