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Currently 73% YES, up 11.0 pts over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a noisy move on weak liquidity — treat with caution (Trust 7/100).
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Resolves YES if Box Office Mojo's domestic cumulative gross for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is at least $850,000,000 for dates through Sunday, September 13, 2026 (i.e. the figure shown on the film's Box Office Mojo domestic release page once the Sept 11-13 weekend is reported). Resolves NO otherwise. Resolution source: Box Office Mojo (boxofficemojo.com), domestic cumulative gross. If Box Office Mojo is unavailable, The Numbers (the-numbers.com) domestic cumulative is the fallback. Why this is genuinely uncertain: the opening weekend is not the crux — the multiplier is. BND set an all-time preview record ($72M), and preview share is the best single predictor of front-loading. But Spider-Man films historically have unusually strong legs. Total-domestic / opening-weekend multipliers for the relevant comps: Avengers: Endgame - 2.40x Avengers: Infinity War - 2.63x Deadpool & Wolverine - 3.01x Spider-Man: No Way Home - 3.13x Against an opening in the $340-360M range, $850M by day 45 requires roughly a 2.5x multiplier at that point. Two of the four comps clear it easily; the most front-loaded one does not. That is the disagreement. Not counted: international gross, re-releases after Sept 13, or any revised figures published after resolution.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketLOW_TRUST_MOVEBig move, weak backingDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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