ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 1h ago

Will the Broadway Subway Extension of the Skytrain Millennium Line in Vancouver Open Before the End of 2027?

As of Oct 25, 2026, 11:33 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 58.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 15.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
58.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 25, 11:33 PM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

15.3 mana

Total volume

27.3 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
39%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

4

Trades

7

over 3 days

Largest order

10 mana

25.5 mana traded across these 7 trades (last 3 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$25.5 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Broadway Subway extension of the SkyTrain Millennium Line in Vancouver, BC opens for paying public passenger service on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT). If revenue passenger service does not begin by that time, or if the opening is postponed beyond 2027, this market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Broadway Subway extension of the SkyTrain Millennium Line in Vancouver, BC opens for paying public passenger service on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT). If revenue passenger service does not begin by that time, or if the opening is postponed beyond 2027, this market resolves to NO. Resolution will be determined primarily using official announcements from: The British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure / Government of B.C. newsroom: news.gov.bc.ca The official Broadway Subway Project portal: broadwaysubway.ca TransLink: translink.ca Clarifications & Edge Cases: Soft launches, media previews, dignitary rides, or technical/testing runs without regular fare-paying passenger service do not qualify as "open." A train with public, fare-paying passengers must leave VCC-Clarke and arrive in Arbutus for the line to be considered “open”. Background The Broadway Subway Project is a 5.7-kilometre extension of Metro Vancouver's SkyTrain Millennium Line, extending from VCC-Clark Station to an interim terminus at Broadway and Arbutus Street. The line includes six new underground stations and provides a key interchange with the Canada Line at Broadway–City Hall. Originally targeted to open in late 2025, the project faced multiple construction and supply-chain delays—including a 2022 concrete workers' strike and complex utility relocations—which led the provincial government to adjust the expected completion date to early 2026, and subsequently to fall 2027. Active track installation and civil excavation reached key milestones in mid-to-late 2026, keeping late 2027 as the targeted operating window. Since the resolution for this market is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade on this market.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2028 at 2:59 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 12:56 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next557 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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