Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
15.3 mana
Total volume
27.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 25, 2026, 11:33 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 58.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 15.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
15.3 mana
Total volume
27.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
4
Trades
7
over 3 days
Largest order
10 mana
25.5 mana traded across these 7 trades (last 3 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Broadway Subway extension of the SkyTrain Millennium Line in Vancouver, BC opens for paying public passenger service on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT). If revenue passenger service does not begin by that time, or if the opening is postponed beyond 2027, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Broadway Subway extension of the SkyTrain Millennium Line in Vancouver, BC opens for paying public passenger service on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT). If revenue passenger service does not begin by that time, or if the opening is postponed beyond 2027, this market resolves to NO. Resolution will be determined primarily using official announcements from: The British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure / Government of B.C. newsroom: news.gov.bc.ca The official Broadway Subway Project portal: broadwaysubway.ca TransLink: translink.ca Clarifications & Edge Cases: Soft launches, media previews, dignitary rides, or technical/testing runs without regular fare-paying passenger service do not qualify as "open." A train with public, fare-paying passengers must leave VCC-Clarke and arrive in Arbutus for the line to be considered “open”. Background The Broadway Subway Project is a 5.7-kilometre extension of Metro Vancouver's SkyTrain Millennium Line, extending from VCC-Clark Station to an interim terminus at Broadway and Arbutus Street. The line includes six new underground stations and provides a key interchange with the Canada Line at Broadway–City Hall. Originally targeted to open in late 2025, the project faced multiple construction and supply-chain delays—including a 2022 concrete workers' strike and complex utility relocations—which led the provincial government to adjust the expected completion date to early 2026, and subsequently to fall 2027. Active track installation and civil excavation reached key milestones in mid-to-late 2026, keeping late 2027 as the targeted operating window. Since the resolution for this market is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade on this market.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 12:56 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.