Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
5.1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
369.4 mana
Total volume
369.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Sun get a girlfriend before October 12, 2027?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 10:48 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 23.7% (down from 25.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 369.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 5.1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
23.7%
−1.3 percentage points
over 24 hours25.0% → 23.7%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
39%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
15
over 6h
Largest order
100 mana
318.2 mana traded across these 15 trades (last 6h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$318.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 11, 2027 at 11:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 10:58 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next1399 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting97%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+1.66H+3.024H-1.37D-1.3
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