Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (4.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 4.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (75.0% → 79.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 7, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 18, 7:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ20
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ20
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest