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Home/Geopolitics/Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026?
ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 7m ago

Market prices a 23.8% chance of “Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026” — up 5.8 points in 24 hours

Original Manifold title: “Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026?”

Market probability
23.8%
+5.8 percentage points
over 24 hours18.0% → 23.8%
53 days until the event deadline
Deadline: October 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (5.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$21.2 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 5.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (18.0% → 23.8%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 9, 1:52 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ22.4

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ22.4

Category
Geopolitics
Change (pts)1H0.06H+5.824H+5.87D+5.8
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

2/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement73

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity46

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 5.8 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
6Low
Where the price path tends to go next840 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
23.8%
7-day range
18.0% – 27.2%
Resolves
Oct 1, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

2/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+32
  • Price steadiness+8
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score2 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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8%YESTrust 26
ManifoldṀ135 24h

🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

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Macro / Fed
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AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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