Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 25.4% (down from 44.3% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ60 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (2.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs. Use the headline establishment-survey change in total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs. Use the headline establishment-survey change in total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted. A value of +150,000 or higher resolves YES. A value of +149,000 or lower resolves NO. Negative values resolve NO. Do not use the unemployment rate, household-survey employment, labor-force participation, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, average hourly earnings, private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, state payrolls, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution. If the September 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the September 2026 headline total nonfarm payroll change unless there is no such release by October 9, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "May 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment +172,000; unemployment rate 4.3%.", "metric": "Change in total nonfarm payroll employment, establishment survey, seasonally adjusted", "related_non_duplicates": ["June, July, August, and November 2026 Employment Situation markets are different reference months.", "Unemployment-rate, U-6, labor-force-participation, household-employment, claims, ADP, AHE, and JOLTS markets are not duplicates.", "Private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, revisions, forecast-consensus, and exact-release-time markets are not duplicates.", "September 2026 CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-sales, industrial-production, housing, and permits markets are different statistical releases."], "release_schedule": "BLS lists Employment Situation for September 2026 on October 2, 2026 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026", "source_snapshot": {"checked_at": "2026-06-30T00:20Z", "official_browser_verified_context": "BLS Employment Situation schedule lists September 2026 for October 2, 2026 at 08:30 AM Eastern. The current May 2026 Employment Situation reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 and unemployment unchanged at 4.3%."}, "threshold": "+150,000 jobs or more"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS 2026 selected releases schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 18.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (44.3% → 25.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 2, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 12:14 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ60
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ422.2
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 25.4%
- 7-day range
- 25.4% – 44.3%
- Resolves
- Oct 2, 2026