Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
As of Oct 7, 2026, 3:01 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 97.0% (up from 95.2% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ137.4 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for September 2026 reports that the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, rose at least 0.3% from August 2026 to September 2026. Resolve NO if the initial BLS release reports a seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U month-over-month change of 0.2% or lower, including 0.0% or a decline.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for September 2026 reports that the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, rose at least 0.3% from August 2026 to September 2026. Resolve NO if the initial BLS release reports a seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U month-over-month change of 0.2% or lower, including 0.0% or a decline. Use the official BLS CPI news release or its tables for September 2026 as the primary source. Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, non-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions. If BLS corrects the initial September 2026 CPI release before this market is resolved, use the corrected BLS release. Scheduled source context: BLS calendar lists Consumer Price Index, September 2026, at 08:30 AM Eastern on October 14, 2026. The market closes one minute before the scheduled 08:30 ET release time. Creation source-check snapshot: {"checked_at": "2026-06-22T00:04:27Z", "local_fetch_checks": {"bls_cpi_home": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/"}, "bls_current_cpi_release": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm"}, "bls_october_2026_schedule": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm"}}, "note": "BLS blocked direct local fetches from this host during preflight; official schedule page was browser-verified immediately before creation.", "official_browser_verified_context": "BLS calendar lists Consumer Price Index, September 2026, at 08:30 AM Eastern on October 14, 2026."}. Related non-duplicates: - August 2026 CPI markets differ by reference month. - Core CPI markets differ because this market uses all-items/headline CPI-U. - PCE and PPI markets differ because this market uses BLS CPI-U. - Year-over-year inflation markets differ because this market uses seasonally adjusted month-over-month change. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS October 2026 release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm - BLS CPI program page: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - BLS current CPI release surface: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 14, 2026 at 8:29 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 7, 3:11 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ137.4
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ757
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 97.0%
- 7-day range
- 95.2% – 97.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 14, 2026
Cross-venue check
0.5 pts apartKalshi prices this same question at 97% vs Manifold at 97%. The venues broadly agree, which adds confidence to the price.
Compare on Kalshi →